The Real Estate Information Center (REIC) of the Government Housing Bank has conducted an analysis on the topic of “Business Confidence Index of Residential Development Entrepreneurs in Bangkok and Surrounding Areas - Q2 2025” and found that the current confidence index for residential development entrepreneurs in Bangkok and surrounding areas stands at 39.3, a decrease of -2.7 points compared to the previous quarter (QoQ) which was at 42.0.
When compared to the same period last year (YoY), which had an index value of 45.2, this reflects a decrease of -5.9 points, falling below the neutral level of 50.0. This indicates that entrepreneurs still have reduced confidence in the current business situation, influenced by high household debt levels, stringent credit assessments by financial institutions, uncertainties in U.S. economic policies, and geopolitical tensions, all of which contribute to a slowing economic outlook both domestically and globally. However, the expectations index for residential development entrepreneurs in Bangkok and surrounding areas for the next six months stands at 50.3, a decrease of -2.0 points from the previous quarter (QoQ) which was at 52.3, still above the neutral level of 50.0. This reflects a positive outlook from entrepreneurs who expect the real estate business to improve following government economic stimulus measures, including reductions in transfer and mortgage fees for properties priced below 7 million baht and temporary easing of LTV regulations by the Bank of Thailand. The details are as follows:

The current situation index of residential development entrepreneurs in Bangkok and surrounding areas for Q2 2025 shows that confidence has decreased in almost all aspects compared to the previous quarter (QoQ). The investment aspect saw the largest drop of -11.2 points, now at 37.7 (down from 48.9). The new project launches and/or new phases decreased by -5.3 points to 40.8 (from 46.1). Employment confidence decreased by -2.1 points to 43.1 (from 45.2). Sales confidence decreased by -1.5 points to 37.9 (from 39.4), and performance confidence decreased by -0.3 points to 34.5 (from 34.8). Meanwhile, operational costs (inversely related) increased by 4.7 points to 42.1 (from 37.4).

For current confidence categorized by entrepreneur groups in Q2 2025, it was found that the current confidence index for Non-listed Companies is at 39.3, an increase from the previous quarter (QoQ) which was at 39.0, but still below the neutral level of 50.0. This indicates that medium to small-sized Non-listed Companies have reduced confidence in the current business situation, leading to a decline in the confidence index in almost all aspects compared to the previous quarter (QoQ). The investment aspect decreased the most to 42.4 (from 47.4), followed by employment confidence dropping to 43.5 (from 47.4), and new project launches and/or new phases down to 41.3 (from 43.4). Meanwhile, operational costs (inversely related) increased the most to 39.1 (from 34.2), followed by performance increasing to 33.7 (from 28.9) and sales increasing to 35.9 (from 32.9). For Listed Companies, the index is at 39.4, down from the previous quarter (QoQ) which was at 43.9, with declines in almost all aspects. The investment confidence decreased the most to 34.5 (from 50.0), new project launches and/or new phases down to 40.5 (from 47.9), sales down to 39.3 (from 43.8), performance down to 35.0 (from 38.6), and employment down to 42.9 (from 43.8). Meanwhile, operational costs (inversely related) increased to 44.0 (from 39.6) (details in Table 1 and Chart 1).

The overall confidence index for residential development entrepreneurs in Bangkok and surrounding areas for the next six months (Expectations Index) is at 50.3, a decrease compared to the previous quarter (QoQ) which was at 52.3, reflecting a decrease of -2.0 points but still above the neutral level of 50.0. This indicates that entrepreneurs still maintain a positive outlook on the real estate business situation in the next six months.
When examining the details of the confidence index in each aspect, it is found that entrepreneurs have reduced confidence in almost all aspects compared to the previous quarter (QoQ), with sales confidence decreasing the most by -4.3 points to 57.3 (from 61.6). The new project launches and/or new phases decreased by -3.4 points to 50.2 (from 53.6). Investment confidence decreased by -2.4 points to 51.4 (from 53.8), performance confidence decreased by -1.6 points to 54.7 (from 56.3), and employment confidence decreased by -0.3 points to 48.8 (from 49.1). Meanwhile, operational costs (inversely related) increased by 0.2 points to 39.5 (from 39.3).

If categorized by entrepreneur groups, it is found that Non-listed Companies have an index value of 43.8, down from the previous quarter (QoQ) which was at 48.7, indicating that Non-listed Companies have reduced confidence in the real estate business situation in the next six months, with declines in almost all aspects. Employment confidence decreased to 43.5 (from 53.9), sales confidence decreased the most to 46.7 (from 53.9), investment confidence decreased to 44.6 (from 50.0), operational costs (inversely related) decreased to 38.0 (from 42.1), and performance confidence decreased to 46.7 (from 48.7). For Listed Companies, the confidence index for the next six months is at 54.6, down from the previous quarter (QoQ) which was at 54.7, but still above the neutral level of 50.0, indicating that Listed Companies maintain a positive outlook on the real estate business situation in the next six months. However, confidence has decreased in almost all aspects, with new project launches and/or new phases decreasing the most to 54.8 (from 60.4), followed by sales confidence decreasing to 64.3 (from 66.7), performance confidence decreasing to 60.0 (from 61.4), and investment confidence decreasing to 56.0 (from 56.3). Meanwhile, employment confidence increased to 52.4 (from 45.8), and operational costs (inversely related) increased to 40.5 (from 37.5) (details in Table 2 and Chart 2).

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Methodology

The Real Estate Information Center of the Government Housing Bank has designed a questionnaire to create the “Business Confidence Index of Residential Development Entrepreneurs in Bangkok and Surrounding Areas” on a quarterly basis, starting from Q4 2007. The confidence index is divided into the Current Situation Index and the Expectations Index for the next six months, each consisting of six questions regarding company performance, sales, investment situation, employment, operational costs (inversely related), and new project launches and/or new phases.

In processing the data, the center gives more weight to listed companies in the stock market (Listed Companies) over non-listed companies (Non-listed Companies) in a ratio of 60:40, as more than 60% of residential projects currently for sale in Bangkok and surrounding areas are from listed companies. The sample surveyed consists of entrepreneurs developing residential projects in Bangkok and surrounding areas across five provinces: Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut Prakan, Samut Sakhon, and Nakhon Pathom.

Interpretation

The neutral value of the index is set at 50.0 points. Therefore, if the index value is above the neutral level, it indicates that entrepreneurs have confidence and a positive outlook on the business situation. Conversely, if the index value is below the neutral level, it indicates that entrepreneurs have reduced confidence and a negative outlook on the business situation.