In the second half of 2025, Thai exports are expected to contract by about 10% YoY after a surge in exports in the previous period, and it is anticipated that the U.S. will reduce imports to manage inventory costs. In July 2025, the number of ships departing from Thai ports dropped to the lowest level since the beginning of the year (Figure 2), consistent with the declining freight rates to the U.S. due to slowing demand.

The Kasikorn Research Center maintains its export forecast for Thailand in 2025 at 1.5%, but it is necessary to monitor the outcome of the tax negotiations that Thailand will receive on August 1, 2025. However, even though Thailand will face higher reciprocal tariffs than other countries in the region, the impact on exports is expected to increase only slightly from the original assessment, as many items exported from Thailand to the U.S. are not subject to reciprocal tariffs but are taxed under specific industry regulations according to Section 232, which sets the same rate for all countries (Figure 3).

Nonetheless, attention must be paid to the announcement of the expansion of products under Section 232 in the second half of the year, such as semiconductors and processed wood, which may affect Thai exports until 2026.