Mr. Kamolphop Veerapala, Managing Director of the Government Housing Bank and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center (REIC) of the Government Housing Bank (GHB) has revealed that the overall housing market situation across the country in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 remains negative compared to the same period last year, but the decline is less severe than in Q1 of 2024. This reflects signs of recovery in the housing market, supported by economic stimulus measures through the real estate sector, particularly the reduction of transfer and mortgage fees to 0.01% for properties priced up to 7 million baht, compared to the previous limit of 3 million baht. As a result, the transfer of ownership for properties priced up to 7 million baht has increased, particularly in the condominium sector, while the transfer of ownership for single-family homes has decreased compared to the same quarter last year.

In Q3 of 2024, the total number of condominium ownership transfers across all price levels reached 31,247 units, an increase of 7.6% compared to the same quarter last year, which recorded 29,041 units. However, the total value decreased by 1.7%, amounting to 79,284 million baht, down from 80,673 million baht in the same quarter last year.

In the segment of condominiums priced up to 7 million baht, which benefited from the support measures, ownership transfers totaled 29,883 units, an increase of 9.1% compared to the previous year, which had 27,391 units, with a total value of 59,271 million baht, up 6.0% from 55,933 million baht in the previous year. In contrast, condominiums priced above 7.5 million baht, which did not receive support from the measures, saw a decline in ownership transfers, totaling 1,364 units, down 17.3% from 1,650 units last year, with a value of 20,013 million baht, down 19.1% from 24,740 million baht last year.

For the ownership transfers of single-family homes in Q3 of 2024, the total number of units and value decreased. There were 59,381 units transferred, down 9.9% from 65,905 units last year, with a total value of 173,968 million baht, down 7.0% from 186,982 million baht last year.

However, single-family homes priced above 10 million baht, despite not receiving support from the measures, were the only segment to see an increase in both the number of units and value, with 1,715 units, up 5.5% from 1,625 units last year, and a value of 36,642 million baht, up 6.5% from 34,392 million baht last year.

Overall, the transfer of ownership for all types of housing (including condominiums and single-family homes) in Q3 of 2024 saw a decrease in both the number of units and value compared to the same quarter last year, with a total of 90,628 units, down 4.5% from 94,946 units last year, and a total value of 253,252 million baht, down 5.4% from 267,655 million baht last year. The measures to reduce transfer and mortgage fees to 0.01% have helped lessen the negative impact on ownership transfers in Q2 and Q3, as seen from Q1 of 2024, where the number of units and value were down by 13.8% and 13.4%, respectively. In Q2, the decline was reduced to 4.5% and 5.7%, and in Q3, it remained at 4.5% and 5.4%.

Cumulative ownership transfers for all types of housing (including condominiums and single-family homes) in the first three quarters of 2024 (January - September 2024) showed a similar trend to the ownership transfers in Q3 of 2024, with a total of 250,580 units, down 7.4% compared to 270,650 units last year, and a total value of 705,389 million baht, down 8.0% from 766,971 million baht last year. This decline was primarily due to single-family homes , which saw a unit decrease of 12.8% and a value decrease of 9.2%, across all price levels, except for the segment priced above 10 million baht, which saw an increase in both units and value.

However, the cumulative ownership transfers of condominiums in the first three quarters of 2024 totaled 83,209 units, an increase of 5.6% compared to 78,813 units last year, but the total value decreased by 5.2% to 212,753 million baht, down from 224,533 million baht last year. The increase in units came from the transfer of condominiums priced up to 3 million baht, totaling 64,524 units, up 10.8% from 58,238 units last year, with a value of 91,110 million baht, up 10.1% from 82,723 million baht last year. In contrast, the segment priced above 3 million baht saw a decrease in both units and value.

It is noteworthy that the cumulative ownership transfers of single-family homes in the first three quarters of 2024 had a high proportion of second-hand homes, accounting for 71% of all single-family home transfers, with a value proportion of 52%. This is due to rising land prices and construction costs, leading to higher prices for new homes, while second-hand homes are priced lower than new homes of similar size and location (the average price for new home transfers is 4.87 million baht per unit, while the average price for second-hand home transfers is 2.16 million baht). However, for new condominiums, the proportion of transfers is higher than that of second-hand condominiums, with a unit proportion of 54% of all condominium transfers and a value proportion of 67%.

In Q3 of 2024, the ownership transfers of condominiums by foreigners totaled 3,756 units, an increase of 11.6% compared to the same period last year, with a transfer value of 18,571 million baht, up 8.9%. In the first three quarters of 2024, foreign ownership transfers totaled 11,036 units (accounting for 13.3% of total condominium transfers), an increase of 3.1% compared to last year, but the transfer value decreased by 1.5% to 51,458 million baht (accounting for 24.2% of total condominium transfer value). While China and Russia have high proportions of condominium transfers, both the number and value have decreased compared to last year, whereas Myanmar and Taiwan have seen increases in both units and value.

For ownership transfers of housing across the country by Thai nationals (excluding foreigners) in the first three quarters of 2024, there were 239,532 units, down 7.8% compared to last year, with a total value of 653,907 million baht, down 8.5%. When separating the price levels into two groups, it was found that ownership transfers by Thai nationals for properties priced up to 10 million baht totaled 233,363 units, down 7.9% compared to last year, with a value of 522,358 million baht, down 10.1%. In contrast, for properties priced above 10 million baht, there were 6,169 units, down 6.2% compared to last year, with a value of 131,550 million baht, down 1.7%.

REIC forecasts that the total ownership transfers of housing across the country for the entire year of 2024 will be approximately 350,545 units, down 4.4%, divided into single-family homes 243,088 units, down 6.0%, or in the range of -15.4% to 3.3%, and condominiums 107,456 units, down 0.6%. The total value of ownership transfers is expected to be approximately 1,012,760 million baht, down 3.3%, with single-family homes valued at 717,052 million baht, down 3.4%, while condominiums will be valued at 295,707 million baht, down 2.9%.

For the trend in 2025, it is expected that the number of ownership transfers will increase to 363,600 units, an increase of 3.7%, or in the range of -4.5% to 12.3%, consisting of single-family homes 254,520 units, up 4.7%, or in the range of -1.4% to 16.0%, and condominiums 109,080 units, up 1.5%, or in the range of -11.6% to 3.9%. The total value is expected to be approximately 1,043,300 million baht, an increase of 3.0%, or in the range of -8.6% to 12.0%, with single-family homes valued at 739,700 million baht, an increase of 3.2%, or in the range of -7.2% to 13.8%, while condominiums will be valued at 303,600 million baht, an increase of 2.7%, or in the range of -12.7% to 7.8%.

New housing loans for individuals in Q3 of 2024 followed a similar trend to housing ownership transfers, with a value of 154,168 million baht, down 17.9% compared to 187,701 million baht last year, marking a continuous decline for four quarters since Q4 of 2023. In the first three quarters of 2024, new housing loans totaled 419,812 million baht, down 16.2% compared to 500,874 million baht in the same period last year. REIC therefore predicts that for the entire year of 2024, new housing loans will total 600,812 million baht, down 11.4%, and forecasts that in 2025, new housing loans will reach 614,500 million baht, an increase of 2.3%.

A survey of ongoing projects (excluding second-hand homes) in the Bangkok metropolitan area found that in Q3 of 2024, the total supply of housing offered for sale was 229,182 units, with a value of 1,394,630 million baht, an increase of 7.0% and 23.1%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. Of this, there were 13,277 new housing units, valued at 115,047 million baht, down 35.8% and 21.3%, respectively. New sales totaled 13,382 units, valued at 81,143 million baht, down 26.7% and 35.8%, respectively. The remaining supply was high at 215,800 units, valued at 1,313,487 million baht, an increase of 10.2% and 27.3%, respectively. The remaining supply increased across all price levels, except for those priced below 1 million baht and between 1.51 to 2.00 million baht, where the remaining supply decreased. The absorption rate fell to 1.9% per month, down from 2.8% per month last year, leading to an increase in the expected months to sell out from 32 months to 49 months.

Overall, the housing market in Bangkok and its vicinity in the first three quarters of 2024 saw new housing supply totaling 46,901 units, valued at 363,292 million baht, with a unit decrease of 27.6%, but an increase in value of 1.8%. The number of units decreased across all types, except for single-family homes, which saw a new supply increase of 1.5%. The average selling price of new housing is currently at 7.75 million baht per unit, compared to 5.50 million baht per unit in the first nine months of 2023. The total number of new sales in the first three quarters of 2024 was 44,231 units, valued at 257,294 million baht, with a unit decrease of 20.9% and a value decrease of 12.1%. Notably, properties priced above 10 million baht saw an increase in sales compared to the same period last year.

The remaining inventory of completed housing types and price levels that should be approached with caution in development includes:

  • Condominiums priced between 2.01 – 3.00 million baht, totaling 9,265 units, accounting for 34.6% of the total completed condominiums remaining for sale, which is 26,794 units, and those priced between 3.01 – 5.00 million baht, totaling 4,277 units, accounting for 16%.
  • Townhouses priced between 2.01 – 3.00 million baht, totaling 7,942 units, accounting for 48.0% of the total completed townhouses remaining for sale, which is 16,561 units, and those priced between 3.01 – 5.00 million baht, totaling 5,338 units, accounting for 32.2%.
  • Single-family homes priced between 5.01 – 7.50 million baht, totaling 2,559 units, accounting for 32.7% of the total completed single-family homes remaining for sale, which is 7,815 units, and those priced between 10.01 – 20 million baht, totaling 1,620 units, accounting for 20.7%.
  • Duplex homes priced between 3.01 – 5.00 million baht, totaling 2,418 units, accounting for 50.8% of the total completed duplex homes remaining for sale, which is 4,760 units, and those priced between 5.01 – 7.50 million baht, totaling 1,472 units, accounting for 30.9%.