Real Estate Information Center, Government Housing Bank (REIC)<\/strong><\/span> reports on the<\/span> Confidence Index of Residential Development Entrepreneurs in Bangkok and Surrounding Areas for Q3 2024<\/span> indicates that the Current Situation Index stands at 45.1, a decrease of -4.6 points compared to the same period last year and a decrease of -0.1 points from Q2 2024. The overall confidence index has remained below the neutral level for seven consecutive quarters since Q1 2023, reflecting a continuous decline in confidence among entrepreneurs in the real estate market. However, there is an expectation that confidence will increase in the next six months.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Mr. Kamolpop Veerapala, Managing Director of the Government Housing Bank (GH Bank) and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center,<\/strong><\/span> stated that REIC has been monitoring the business confidence of residential development entrepreneurs continuously since 2007. It was found that in Q3 2024, entrepreneurs' confidence has decreased in almost all aspects compared to the previous quarter (QoQ), with the most significant drop in sales confidence by -6.6 points, now at 40.7 (down from 47.3 in the previous quarter). Following that, investment confidence decreased by -0.2 points to 47.4 (down from 47.6 in the previous quarter).<\/span><\/p>

Meanwhile, confidence regarding performance increased by 2.5 points to 42.0 (up from 39.5 in the previous quarter), confidence in launching new projects and/or new phases increased by 1.6 points to 50.7 (up from 49.1 in the previous quarter), confidence regarding operational costs (inversely related) increased by 1.5 points to 40.4 (up from 38.9 in the previous quarter), and confidence in employment increased by 0.9 points to 49.6 (up from 48.7 in the previous quarter). However, the index values in almost all areas remain below 50.0.<\/span><\/p>

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When categorized by entrepreneur groups, it was found that the current confidence index for Listed Companies<\/strong> in Q3 2024 is at 47.9, lower than the previous quarter's index of 52.2 and below the neutral level of 50.0. This indicates that entrepreneurs in the Listed Companies group have decreased confidence in the current business situation and are increasingly concerned. The sales confidence has dropped the most, now at 43.8 (down from 59.6 in the previous quarter), followed by investment confidence at 52.1 (down from 57.7 in the previous quarter), confidence in launching new projects and/or new phases at 52.1 (down from 57.7 in the previous quarter), and performance confidence at 47.7 (down from 50.0 in the previous quarter). However, there are two areas where confidence has increased: operational costs (inversely related) at 39.6 (up from 36.5 in the previous quarter) and employment at 52.1 (up from 51.9 in the previous quarter).<\/span><\/p>

Meanwhile, Non-listed Companies<\/strong> or medium-small entrepreneurs have a confidence index of 41.0, up from 34.6 in the previous quarter but still below the neutral level of 50.0, indicating that Non-listed Companies also have decreased confidence in the current business situation like Listed Companies, but show a trend of reduced concern.<\/span><\/p>

In this quarter, the confidence of Non-listed Companies has increased in almost all areas compared to the previous quarter, with the most significant increase in confidence regarding launching new projects and/or new phases at 48.6 (up from 36.3 in the previous quarter), followed by performance confidence at 33.3 (up from 23.8 in the previous quarter), investment confidence at 40.3 (up from 32.5 in the previous quarter), sales confidence at 36.1 (up from 28.8 in the previous quarter), and employment confidence at 45.8 (up from 43.8). However, confidence regarding operational costs (inversely related) has decreased to 41.7 (down from 42.5 in the previous quarter) (see Table 1 and Chart 1).<\/span><\/p>

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As for the overall confidence index of residential development entrepreneurs in Bangkok and surrounding areas for the next <\/strong>6 months <\/strong>(Expectations Index), it is at 51.6, an increase compared to the previous quarter (QoQ) which was at 51.4, up by 0.2 points. This index is above the neutral level of 50.0, indicating that entrepreneurs have a positive outlook on the real estate business situation in the next 6 months.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

When considering each aspect, it was found that sales confidence increased by 3.4 points to 57.8 (up from 54.4 in the previous quarter), followed by operational costs (inversely related) confidence increasing by 2.9 points to 37.5 (up from 34.6 in the previous quarter), employment confidence increasing by 2.2 points to 52.4 (up from 50.2 in the previous quarter), and performance confidence increasing by 2.0 points to 53.0 (up from 51.0 in the previous quarter).<\/span><\/p>

However, there are two areas where confidence has decreased from the previous quarter: confidence in launching new projects and/or new phases decreased by -6.3 points to 58.1 (down from 64.4 in the previous quarter) and investment confidence decreased by -3.1 points to 51.0 (down from 54.1 in the previous quarter).<\/span><\/p>

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When categorized by entrepreneur groups, it was found that the Listed Companies<\/strong> have a confidence index for the next 6 months at 51.8, down from 54.9 in the previous quarter, indicating that entrepreneurs in the Listed Companies group have confidence in the real estate business for the next 6 months, but with a decrease from the previous quarter. When examining confidence in each aspect, it was found that Listed Companies have decreased confidence in almost all areas, with investment confidence dropping to 47.9 (down from 57.7 in the previous quarter), performance confidence dropping to 52.3 (down from 58.3 in the previous quarter), confidence in launching new projects and/or new phases dropping to 62.5 (down from 67.3 in the previous quarter), and sales confidence dropping to 58.3 (down from 61.5 in the previous quarter). However, there are two areas where confidence has increased from the previous quarter: operational costs (inversely related) increased to 37.5 (up from 32.7 in the previous quarter) and employment increased to 52.1 (up from 51.9 in the previous quarter).<\/span><\/p>

Meanwhile, the Non-listed Companies<\/strong> have a confidence index of 51.4, up from 46.3 in the previous quarter, indicating that Non-listed Companies have increased confidence and a more positive outlook on the real estate business situation in the next 6 months. When examining each aspect, it was found that performance confidence increased to 54.2 (up from 40.0 in the previous quarter), sales confidence increased to 56.9 (up from 43.8 in the previous quarter), investment confidence increased to 55.6 (up from 48.8 in the previous quarter), and employment confidence increased to 52.8 (up from 47.5 in the previous quarter). Meanwhile, confidence in launching new projects and/or new phases decreased to 51.4 (down from 60.0 in the previous quarter), and confidence regarding operational costs (inversely related) remained unchanged at 37.5 (see Table 2 and Chart 2).<\/span><\/p>

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