Real Estate Information Center (REIC) of the Government Housing Bank has revealed that the housing market in Q1/67 has significantly slowed down in terms of demand, with the number of property transfer units nationwide hitting the lowest level in 25 quarters. This decline has been attributed to cumulative effects from late 66, including LTV measures, household debt, and stricter lending policies from banks. Meanwhile, the foreign market continues to expand, with China leading the way, while Myanmar has surpassed Russia for the first time this quarter.

Dr. Vichai Viratakphan, Banking Inspector and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center stated that in Q1 of 2567, REIC observed a significant slowdown in demand, with only 72,954 property transfer units nationwide, a decrease of 13.8%. The horizontal property segment saw the largest drop at 18.9%, while condominiums decreased by 0.6%.

The total value of property transfers nationwide in Q1 of 2567 was 208,732 million baht, marking the lowest transfer value in 19 quarters (Q3/2562 – Q1/2567) and a decrease of 13.4% compared to Q1 of 2566, which had a value of 241,167 million baht. The horizontal segment experienced the most significant decline at 14.6%, while condominiums dropped by 10.7%. Additionally, new loan disbursements decreased by 20.5% compared to the same period last year, marking the lowest level in 25 quarters. This has resulted in a slowdown in new supply, with nationwide allocation permits down by 19.7% and residential construction permits down by 12.0%, while new housing launches fell by 38.5%.

Following the government's economic stimulus measures through the real estate sector, REIC anticipates positive effects in the latter half of 2567, predicting a market recovery that could lead to an overall annual growth of at least 5% and potentially exceeding 10%. However, caution is advised regarding the development of high-priced housing, as sales are beginning to slow and inventory is accumulating.

Weak Purchasing Power: Homes Priced 5-7 Million See 20% Drop, Second-Hand Homes Under 3 Million Perform Well

The decline in property transfers has been observed across all price levels, with the highest drop occurring in the 5.01-7.50 million baht range, which fell by 20.0%. This was followed by the 1.51-2.00 million baht range with a decrease of 19.8%, the 3.01-5.00 million baht range down by 18.2%, and the 2.01-3.00 million baht range down by 18.0% compared to the same period last year. Notably, in the price segment above 3 million baht, new homes saw more transfers than second-hand homes, while in the segment below 3 million baht, second-hand homes outperformed new ones.

Additionally, the number of transfers for horizontal properties has decreased across all price levels, with the most significant drop in the 1.51-2.00 million baht range at 30.2%, followed by the 2.01-3.00 million baht range at 26.5%, and the 3.01-5.00 million baht range at 20.2%.

In terms of condominium transfers, the largest decrease was seen in the 5.01-7.50 million baht range, which fell by 30.3%. This was followed by the over 10.00 million baht range at 26.0%, the 7.51-10.00 million baht range at 20.9%, and the 3.01-5.00 million baht range at 13.4%. However, condominiums priced below 3.00 million baht saw growth compared to last year, partly due to the launch of low-priced condominium projects that began completing construction and transferring ownership in late 2564 and 2565. Transfers of second-hand condominiums priced below 1.00 million baht and between 1.01-1.50 million baht increased by 5.0% and 4.9%, respectively, while higher-priced condominiums in the 1.51-2.00 million baht and 2.01-3.00 million baht ranges saw increases of 10.3% and 9.6%, respectively, driven by new condominium transfers in Bangkok and surrounding areas as well as major regional cities.

The weakened purchasing power of the public has also impacted new housing loan disbursements in Q1 of 2567, which were at their lowest in 25 quarters, with only 121,529 million baht disbursed. This represents a decline of 20.5%, likely due to reduced loan application capabilities and stricter approval criteria from financial institutions. However, the total outstanding personal housing loans nationwide increased to 4,956,145 million baht, up 3.8% compared to Q1 of 2566, although this is the lowest growth rate in 25 quarters.

The demand-supply outlook for 2567 is improving following the government's announcement of economic stimulus measures through the real estate sector to support public housing and stimulate the economy through real estate and related businesses on April 9, 2567. REIC views this as a positive factor that will contribute to the expansion of the housing market, predicting that in 2567, there will be approximately 386,861 property transfer units, an increase of 5.5%.

The number of horizontal property transfer units is expected to be around 277,118, an increase of 7.1%, while the number of condominium transfer units is projected to be approximately 109,743, an increase of 1.5%. In terms of the value of property transfers, it is anticipated to reach approximately 1,105,912 million baht, an increase of 5.6%. The horizontal segment is expected to have a transfer value of around 795,275 million baht, up 7.1%, while condominiums are projected to reach a transfer value of approximately 310,636 million baht, an increase of 2.0%. The total value of new personal housing loans nationwide is expected to be 698,931 million baht, an increase of 3.0%, with total outstanding personal housing loans nationwide reaching 5,191,092 million baht, up 4.9%.

Chinese Buyers Lead Foreign Condo Market, Myanmar Surpasses Russia for the First Time, Watch for High-Spending Indian Customers

Regarding the situation of condominium transfers by foreigners in Q1 of 2567, there were 3,938 units transferred, with a total transfer value of 18,013 million baht. The number of units increased by 4.3%, and the transfer value rose by 5.2% compared to the same period last year, marking the highest number of foreign condominium transfers in 25 quarters.

The nationalities with the highest number of units and values for foreign condominium transfers in Q1 of 2567 are as follows:

1st Place: Chinese nationality with 1,596 units, accounting for 41% and a value of 7,570 million baht, representing 42% of all foreign condominium transfers.

2nd Place: Myanmar nationality with 392 units, accounting for 10% and a value of 2,207 million baht, representing 12% of all foreign condominium transfers.

3rd Place: Russian nationality with 295 units, accounting for 7% and a value of 924 million baht, representing 5% of all foreign condominium transfers.

Although India had only 56 condominium transfers in Q1/67, valued at 365 million baht, it had the highest average purchase price of 6.5 million baht and the largest average area of 72.7 square meters.

Nonetheless, the housing market, particularly condominiums, has seen an increase in purchases from foreigners, reflecting the necessity and opportunity to attract new purchasing power to stimulate the real estate sector and the overall economy of the country in the short term, with minimal negative impact. This requires collaboration between the public and private sectors.