"LWS" expects real estate developers to accelerate the launch of residential projects in the Bangkok and surrounding areas in the fourth quarter of 2023, estimating new project launches to be worth around 140,000-150,000 million baht. This is a result of developers delaying their project launches in the third quarter due to the unclear political situation.

 

Mr. Prabhan Sak Raksaiwan, Managing Director of LWS Wisdom and Solution Co., Ltd., a research and development company in the real estate sector under the LP-N Development Public Company Limited, discussed the trend of new project launches by real estate developers in the fourth quarter of 2023. He noted that the uncertainty in the political situation following the elections has caused developers to postpone their residential project launches in the third quarter of 2023, leading to a decrease in the number of projects and units launched in the first nine months of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.

From January to September 2023, there were a total of 304 new project launches in the Bangkok and surrounding areas, totaling 67,772 units, a decrease of 11% compared to 76,346 units launched in the same period of 2022. The total value of new project launches was 338,655 million baht, an increase of 4% from 326,570 million baht in the same period of 2022. The decrease in the number of units launched, while the value increased, is due to developers focusing on launching residential units priced over 10 million baht, resulting in a higher launch value despite fewer units being introduced.

In the first nine months of 2023, the 304 new project launches included 61 condominium projects, accounting for 31,325 units with a value of 85,782 million baht, representing decreases of 21% and 11%, respectively, compared to 39,421 units and 96,836 million baht in the same period of 2022. The sales rate at the time of launch was 27%, down from 31% in the same period of 2022, with the average selling price of condominiums in the first nine months of 2023 at 2.73 million baht per unit, up from 2.45 million baht in the same period of 2022.

Meanwhile, the new project launches in the first nine months of 2023 included 164 residential projects priced below 10 million baht, totaling 31,345 units, a decrease of 0.23% compared to the same period in 2022, with a value of 130,847 million baht, an increase of 2.18% compared to 128,047 million baht in the same period of 2022. The sales rate at the time of project launch was 8%, down from 13% in the same period of 2022, with an average selling price of 4.17 million baht per unit in the first nine months of 2023, up from 4.07 million baht in the same period of 2022.

Additionally, there were 79 new residential projects priced over 10 million baht, totaling 5,102 units, a decrease of 7.18% compared to 5,497 units in the same period of 2022. The value of new project launches for residential units priced over 10 million baht in the first nine months of 2023 was 122,025 million baht, a 20% increase from 101,687 million baht, with an average sales rate at the time of launch of 12%, down from 19% in the same period of 2022. The average selling price for homes priced over 10 million baht was 24.1 million baht per unit, up from 19.2 million baht in the first nine months of 2022.

"Due to real estate developers delaying their plans for new project launches in the third quarter of 2023, there is a tendency for them to accelerate new project launches in the Bangkok and surrounding areas in the final quarter of 2023. It is expected that around 40,000-41,000 new units will be launched, valued at 140,000-150,000 million baht, to stimulate sales and recognize revenue in the final quarter of the year. It is anticipated that residential projects will account for no less than 70% of the total new units launched in the fourth quarter of 2023, particularly homes priced below 5 million baht, while condominiums are expected to make up about 30% of the total new units launched, priced below 3 million baht," Mr. Prabhan stated.

Based on the new project launch plans in the Bangkok and surrounding areas for the final quarter of 2023, Mr. Prabhan expects that the overall new project launches for residential properties in these areas in 2023 will be similar to 2022 or grow by no more than 5%, with an estimated 105,000-108,000 new units launched, valued at approximately 474,000-488,000 million baht, compared to 103,000 units valued at 457,000 million baht in 2022.