Dr. Wichai Wiratthakhan, Inspector of the Government Housing Bank and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center stated that the real estate market in the first half of 2023 faced negative factors due to the incomplete recovery of the overall economy, rising interest rates, household debt exceeding 90% of GDP, and increasing housing prices. These factors have impacted the housing market in the first half of the year, particularly in terms of ownership transfers and new sales, which have decreased compared to the previous year. This reflects the still-weak purchasing power in the housing sector and the need for stimulus measures from the new government to set economic policies.

In the second half of the year, the Real Estate Information Center predicts that the overall real estate market will continue to slow down. However, there is still demand for single-family and twin houses priced between 7.5 to 10 million baht, which can still be sold and continue to see ownership transfers. Meanwhile, luxury homes priced at 10 million baht and above are a segment to watch for market saturation, as there may be an oversupply issue. This is due to developers increasingly focusing on luxury homes while the existing supply remains in the market, potentially accumulating to excessive levels. As for condominiums, the market in the second half of the year may weaken according to demand and the purchasing power of customers. Therefore, it is recommended that developers focus on clearing existing inventory rather than aggressively launching new projects to reduce the accumulation of unsold units and create balance in the real estate market.

Regarding real estate measures, it is suggested that the new government should help stimulate the sector by reintroducing LTV measures with conditions to attract purchasing power from investors or high-income groups, as well as offering soft loan credit, which could come in the form of collaboration between banks and real estate developers to support loans for people wanting to own homes. Buyers should prepare to engage directly with financial institutions, or there could be cooperation for developers to buy back properties from customers who have defaulted on payments, similar to the case of the Government Housing Bank collaborating with the National Housing Authority to support citizens in owning homes.

In the second half of the year, demand from foreign customers is expected to recover well, with significant purchases from foreign clients mainly from the United States, the UK, Europe, Russia, Japan, China, and neighboring countries. In the first half of 2023, there were 7,338 ownership transfer units of condominiums by foreigners, accounting for 14.7% of total condominium ownership transfers, with a value of 24.5% or 35.211 billion baht. The number of transfers increased by 65.6%, and the value of transfers rose by 57.8%.

Chinese buyers continue to purchase the most condominiums, while Myanmar buyers have the highest average purchase value at 7 million baht. Indian buyers tend to purchase the largest average-sized units, averaging 89.8 square meters. Data shows that Chinese buyers prefer condominiums sized at 39 square meters, indicating investment purchases, while buyers from other nationalities tend to buy larger units over 40 square meters for actual living. It is hoped that the new government will implement policies to attract more foreigners to purchase real estate in Thailand, such as extending visa durations, increasing special privileges, and supporting various fees.

However, The housing market situation in the first half of 2023 shows that the overall demand-supply in the Bangkok metropolitan area and key provinces, totaling 27 provinces, has approximately 321,848 units offered for sale, valued at 1,441,870 million baht. The overall number of units decreased by -1.3%, but the value increased by 0.3%. There were 64,998 new units launched in the first half of 2023, valued at 273,178 million baht, which is a decrease in both the number of units and value, down -11.6% and -10.9%, respectively.

As for the unsold housing units, there are 291,384 units valued at 1,306,788 million baht. The overall unsold housing units increased in both number and value, rising by 2.4% and 4.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, 57,516 new units were sold, valued at 258,957 million baht, showing a decrease in both number and value, with the number of units down -27.7% and value down -24.1%, respectively.