Globlex Securities (GBS) assesses that the Thai stock market will fluctuate in a sideways manner, advising investors to monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy vote on June 14 (early morning June 15 in Thailand). Additionally, the political situation in the country remains uncertain regarding the formation of a new government, following the Election Commission's acceptance of a petition to investigate Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat for violating Section 151, which disqualifies him from running for election. The index is projected to move within the range of 1,520-1,570 points and recommends investing in 10 prominent stocks entering the FTSE SET Index.

Ms. Wilasinee Boonmasungtrong, Director of Research at Globlex Securities (GBS), predicts that the Thai stock market will experience volatility in a sideways trend this week as investors keep an eye on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy vote on June 14 (early morning June 15 in Thailand). Furthermore, the U.S. plans to announce a long-term military aid budget for Ukraine, focusing on air defense equipment valued at over $2 billion.

China faces risks of deflation after inflation data showed a near 0% rate in May, prompting experts to call for the People's Bank of China to ease monetary policy to stimulate the economy. Analysts in China expect consumption to grow and recover in 2024, while this year is merely a step out of the downturn. Following the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, retail sales have shown a moderate recovery during the first four months of 2023.

Meanwhile, the political situation in Thailand remains uncertain as the formation of a new government continues to drag on after the Election Commission unanimously accepted a petition to investigate Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat for violating Section 151, which disqualifies him from running for election. This leads to an index movement range of 1,520-1,570 points.

The Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) reported that in April 2023, Thailand's exports amounted to $21.723.2 billion, contracting by 7.6% YoY, while imports totaled $23.195 billion, down 7.3% YoY, resulting in a trade deficit of $1.471.7 billion for April 2023. Overall, from January to April 2023, Thailand's total exports were valued at $92.003.3 billion, a contraction of 5.2% YoY. The Ministry of Commerce reported that Thailand's CPI in May 2023 increased by 0.53% YoY, continuing to slow for the fifth consecutive month and marking the lowest level in 21 months due to falling fuel and cooking gas prices, along with a high base in May 2022. Consequently, the average inflation rate for the first five months of this year rose by 2.96% YoY, while the Core CPI in May 2023 increased by 1.55% YoY, also continuing to slow, leading to an average Core inflation rate of 1.98% for the first five months of the year.

There are also domestic factors to watch, such as the Industrial Confidence Index announcement by the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) in the third week, the Ministry of Commerce's report on international trade, border trade, and cross-border trade in the fourth week, the FTI's report on automobile production and exports, and in the fifth week, the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) will report on the economic situation, regional economic conditions, and the future economic confidence index. The Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) will announce the Industrial Index. As for international factors to monitor today, June 13, the EU will report the Economic Confidence Index for June, the U.S. will report the Small Business Confidence Index for May and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May. On June 13-14, the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold a meeting regarding the policy interest rate (results will be known on the morning of June 15, Thailand time), on June 14, the U.S. will report the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May and weekly oil stock from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (morning of June 15). The Federal Reserve will meet on monetary policy and announce the interest rate decision, and on June 15, China will report industrial production for May and retail sales for May, while the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce the interest rate decision, and the U.S. will report the number of weekly jobless claims.

Therefore, it is recommended to invest in stocks that are included in the FTSE SET Index: Large Cap includes MAKRO and TRUE, while Mid Cap includes BEM, BTG, DIF, ITC, SAPPE, SISB, SNNP, SCAP, reflecting the criteria for market capitalization and liquidity according to international standards, effective from June 19 onwards.

Regarding the direction of gold investment, Mr. Natthawut Wongyowarak, Director of Research at Globlex Securities, assesses that gold prices this week should be monitored closely as U.S. economic figures show a strong trend in both labor market data and inflation indices. Mid-month, there will be an FOMC meeting where the market expects interest rates to remain at 5.00-5.25% until the end of the year. This week, attention should be paid to the announcement of inflation figures for both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). Additionally, there will be an FOMC meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve mid-week, where the market largely expects the Fed to maintain the current interest rate. If this aligns with market expectations, it will support gold prices.

Thus, the research department predicts that gold will be supported by the trend of easing inflation and the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates. During the week, if gold prices do not fall below the support level around $1,930/oz, it is recommended to gradually accumulate purchases.