Dr. Vichai Wiratkhapan, Inspector of the Government Housing Bank and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center, stated that the overall housing market in Bangkok and its vicinity in the fourth quarter of 2022 continued to grow from the third quarter due to positive factors such as the reduction of transfer fees and mortgage fees for properties priced below 3 million baht, along with the Bank of Thailand's temporary easing of LTV measures. This has led to an expansion in the supply of housing projects, with 205,806 new units offered for sale, an increase of 4%, valued at 1,034,031 million baht. This includes 76,930 condominium units, up 7.3%, valued at 322,772 million baht, and 128,876 housing projects, up 2.1%, valued at 711,259 million baht.

Top 5 Locations with the Highest Supply of Real Estate for Sale

  1. Bang Phli-Bang Bo-Bang Sao Thong: 22,564 units, valued at 126,578 million baht
  2. Bang Yai-Bang Bua Thong-Bang Kruai-Sai Noi: 18,748 units, valued at 85,683 million baht
  3. Samut Prakan City, Phra Pradaeng, Phra Samut Chedi: 15,451 units, valued at 51,759 million baht
  4. Lam Luk Ka-Thanyaburi: 15,308 units, valued at 56,318 million baht
  5. Pathum Thani City-Lat Lum Kaeo-Sam Khok: 12,945 units, valued at 47,113 million baht

Top 5 Condominium Projects with the Highest Supply

  1. Huai Khwang-Jatujak-Dindaeng: 9,403 units, valued at 37,532 million baht
  2. Phra Khanong-Bang Na-Suan Luang Pravet: 3,045 units, valued at 24,894 million baht
  3. Thonburi-Khlong San-Bangkok Noi-Bangkok Yai-Bang Phlat: 8,445 units, valued at 20,098 million baht
  4. Sukhumvit: 7,202 units, valued at 62,460 million baht
  5. Nonthaburi-Pak Kret: 6,717 units, valued at 15,825 million baht

Top 5 Housing Projects with the Highest Supply

  1. Bang Phli-Bang Bo-Bang Sao Thong: 19,000 units, valued at 11,357 million baht
  2. Bang Yai-Bang Bua Thong-Bang Kruai-Sai Noi: 17,983 units, valued at 84,644 million baht
  3. Lam Luk Ka-Thanyaburi: 14,714 units, valued at 55,744 million baht
  4. Khlong Luang-Nong Suea: 11,108 units, valued at 41,983 million baht
  5. Pathum Thani City-Lat Lum Kaeo-Sam Khok: 11,036 units, valued at 44,479 million baht

New supply launched amounted to 27,759 units, an increase of 15.5%, valued at 160,877 million baht, comprising 13,431 condominium units, up 78.5%, valued at 45,291 million baht, and 14,328 housing projects, down 13.2%, valued at 115,586 million baht.

Top 5 Locations with the Highest New Units Launched in Q4/2022

  1. Bang Phli-Bang Bo-Bang Sao Thong: 5,092 units, valued at 29,644 million baht
  2. Rat Burana-Bang Khun Thian-Thung Khru-Bang Bon-Chom Thong: 2,831 units, valued at 12,635 million baht
  3. Phra Khanong-Bang Na-Suan Luang Pravet: 2,421 units, valued at 17,247 million baht
  4. Thonburi-Khlong San-Bangkok Noi-Bangkok Yai-Bang Phlat: 2,160 units, valued at 7,723 million baht
  5. Bang Yai-Bang Bua Thong-Bang Kruai-Sai Noi: 1,551 units, valued at 7,319 million baht

Regarding the demand for new housing sold, there were 21,282 units, an increase of 5.1% compared to the previous quarter, comprising 8,518 condominium units, up 4.7%, valued at 34,513 million baht, and 12,664 housing projects, up 5.3%, valued at 83,108 million baht.

Top 5 Locations with the Highest New Units Sold

  1. Bang Phli-Bang Bo-Bang Sao Thong: 3,600 units, valued at 19,551 million baht
  2. Samut Prakan City, Phra Pradaeng, Phra Samut Chedi: 1,552 units, valued at 7,267 million baht
  3. Phra Khanong-Bang Na-Suan Luang Pravet: 1,793 units, valued at 11,249 million baht
  4. Lak Si-Don Mueang-Sai Mai-Bang Khen: 1,178 units, valued at 7,845 million baht
  5. Bang Yai-Bang Bua Thong-Bang Kruai-Sai Noi: 1,127 units, valued at 5,433 million baht

Top 5 Condominium Projects with the Highest New Units Sold

  1. Phra Khanong-Bang Na-Suan Luang-Pravet: 1,350 units, valued at 3,641 million baht
  2. Bang Phli-Bang Bo-Bang Sao Thong: 1,339 units, valued at 4,724 million baht
  3. Huai Khwang-Jatujak-Dindaeng: 1,031 units, valued at 3,054 million baht
  4. Sukhumvit: 370 units, valued at 7,258 million baht
  5. Samut Prakan City, Phra Pradaeng, Phra Samut Chedi: 617 units, valued at 1,795 million baht

Top 5 Housing Projects with the Highest New Units Sold

  1. Bang Phli-Bang Bo-Bang Sao Thong: 2,261 units, valued at 14,927 million baht
  2. Samut Prakan City, Phra Pradaeng, Phra Samut Chedi: 1,235 units, valued at 5,462 million baht
  3. Bang Yai-Bang Bua Thong-Bang Kruai-Sai Noi: 1,063 units, valued at 5,348 million baht
  4. Khlong Sam Wa-Min Buri-Lat Krabang: 954 units, valued at 6,718 million baht
  5. Lam Luk Ka-Thanyaburi: 895 units, valued at 3,500 million baht

Meanwhile, the absorption rate across all price levels remains stable from the third quarter, as the new sales have increased at a slower rate than the new products entering the market, resulting in 184,524 units remaining for sale, an increase of 3.8%, valued at 916,410 million baht, up 5.2%.

This includes 68,312 condominium units, an increase of 7.6%, valued at 288,259 million baht, and 116,212 housing projects, an increase of 1.7%, valued at 628,151 million baht compared to the previous quarter. Attention should be paid to the townhome segment, which may face an Over Supply situation with over 16,000 units remaining from 2022, combined with over 18,000 new units entering the market in 2023 and another 30,000 new projects starting construction. The absorption rate is still not as good as it should be, which may require some time to clear the inventory.

Top 5 Locations with the Highest Remaining Inventory

  1. Bang Phli-Bang Bo-Bang Sao Thong: 18,900 units, valued at 106,226 million baht
  2. Bang Yai-Bang Bua Thong-Bang Kruai-Sai Noi: 17,521 units, valued at 80,250 million baht
  3. Lam Luk Ka-Thanyaburi: 14,375 units, valued at 52,700 million baht
  4. Samut Prakan City, Phra Pradaeng, Phra Samut Chedi: 13,588 units, valued at 44,503 million baht
  5. Pathum Thani City-Lat Lum Kaeo-Sam Khok: 12,241 units, valued at 44,208 million baht

Top 5 Condominium Projects with the Highest Remaining Inventory

  1. Huai Khwang-Jatujak-Dindaeng: 8,372 units, valued at 33,578 million baht
  2. Thonburi-Khlong San-Bangkok Noi-Bangkok Yai-Bang Phlat: 7,979 units, valued at 25,525 million baht
  3. Phra Khanong-Bang Na-Suan Luang-Pravet: 7,295 units, valued at 21,253 million baht
  4. Nonthaburi-Pak Kret: 6,426 units, valued at 15,128 million baht
  5. Sukhumvit: 6,232 units, valued at 55,204 million baht

Top 5 Housing Projects with the Highest Remaining Inventory

  1. Bang Yai-Bang Bua Thong-Bang Kruai-Sai Noi: 16,920 units, valued at 79,296 million baht
  2. Bang Phli-Bang Bo-Bang Sao Thong: 16,829 units, valued at 696,439 million baht
  3. Lam Luk Ka-Thanyaburi: 13,819 units, valued at 52,244 million baht
  4. Pathum Thani City-Lat Lum Kaeo-Sam Khok: 10,444 units, valued at 41,770 million baht
  5. Khlong Luang-Nong Suea: 10,434 units, valued at 38,904 million baht

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kesara Thanyalakphak, Managing Director of Sena Development Public Company Limited, stated that this year the real estate market is lively, as evidenced by the numerous new project launches. Currently, price is a crucial factor in purchasing decisions, especially for condominiums priced between 1-2 million baht, which have very similar designs. It is acknowledged that over the past 3-4 years, rising costs have impacted real estate at all levels, prompting a reconsideration of whether we can truly lower costs while achieving desired profits. Although there is hope that costs will decrease due to government tax reductions on land, the effects have not been very clear. Therefore, it is essential for operators to consider that a 6% drop in price indices affects product offerings. Certainly, we will not compromise on product quality, but we will focus on developing new projects that are suitable for their respective locations. For instance, in areas where townhouses exceed 3 million baht, we will develop those areas into low-priced condominiums to address the issue, as well as shifting locations, such as projects that enter alleys or are located further from the city.

Currently, Sena is developing low-priced condominiums in industrial estates and industrial parks throughout Bangkok and its vicinity. The highlight is that Sena offers products and services that differ from the National Housing Authority, which is a significant competitor in this segment. Most customers of low-priced condominiums are working-age individuals in industrial estates who have a demand for housing, and we also see investors purchasing multiple units for rental instead of building their own rental apartments. Popular locations include the Lat Krabang industrial estate, where projects sell very well, attracting many working-age Japanese customers.

Additionally, Sena has requested permission from the Bank of Thailand to open a financial institution under the name Cash Good Heart Company Limited to provide loan services for those wishing to purchase or rent housing within the Sena Development Public Company Limited group. This concept arose during COVID when many customers were denied loans from banks, revealing a significant gap in demand.

As for the factors to watch in the low-priced market, it should be noted that Sena is not a major player in this market but saw an opportunity to develop low-priced condominiums. Of the approximately 95 projects Sena has, only about 20 are low-priced condominiums. Initially, this market was attractive due to customer demand, but competition has increased, while land prices and various costs have also risen, making low-priced condominiums less viable at this time.

On the other hand,Mr. Khajornsith Singserm, Executive Director and CEO of Siamese Asset Public Company Limited, stated that Siamese Asset has completed over 30 real estate projects, primarily along Sukhumvit and in the city center, due to the demand from foreign customers visiting Thailand over the past decade.

It should be noted that starting projects in the Sukhumvit area from the beginning was a very good decision, as during the COVID crisis, Siamese's property prices did not drop due to adjustments made by incorporating leading hotel chains such as Wyndham, Banyan Tree, Hilton, and Pullman into their projects. This has provided customers with rental returns of around 5% and an occupancy rate of up to 100%, with tenants consistently present, catering to foreign investors who do not have time to manage their units.

Personally, I believe that medium to small real estate companies must always look for new gaps, as their ability to compete with larger players is limited. Therefore, finding markets with fewer competitors, especially in condominium projects designed like hotels with proper licensing, to target investor customers is an interesting approach. Siamese Asset has successfully generated good returns for customers, with a 30% repeat purchase rate.

In terms of interesting real estate perspectives this year, the Phuket market appears promising for foreign real estate, particularly for Russians who are currently moving in large numbers, leading to strong sales in Phuket properties. Additionally, the wellness business is also appealing due to the aging society, and there are currently many foreigners seeking medical treatment in Thailand, benefiting from favorable exchange rates and lower living costs, allowing them to spend comfortably. However, caution should be exercised this year regarding the upcoming elections, as concerns over potential protests could disrupt the recovering tourism sector.

Mr. Sunthorn Sathaporn, Managing Director of Sathaporn Estate Company Limited, stated that the luxury home market, priced at 10 million baht and above, currently has about 8,000 units available for sale annually. This segment is gradually selling but not dramatically, with a low absorption rate. However, it remains interesting if developers understand the location and choose to create projects that cater to this customer group, as over 30% of buyers are cash purchasers.

Nevertheless, the risk of developing products in this segment is that real estate developers must accept slower sales. Therefore, effective cash flow management is crucial to bear the costs during the waiting period for sales, which is essential to avoid defaulting on payments. If this occurs, it could impact the company's image and erode customer confidence.