Summary of Thai Baht Movements

  • The Thai Baht fluctuated within a narrow range, weakening at the beginning of the week amid concerns over the outlook for the Thai economy, which continues to be affected by the prolonged COVID-19 outbreak. However, the Baht briefly strengthened later on due to position adjustments during the Fed meeting minutes. The Baht weakened again for the remainder of the week as foreign investors recorded net selling of Thai stocks and bonds, coupled with the US dollar gaining support from expectations that the Fed might begin to taper asset purchases under its QE measures by the end of this year if the US labor market continues to recover.
  • On Friday (August 20), the Baht was at 33.36 Baht per US dollar, compared to 33.34 Baht per US dollar the previous Friday (August 13).

For the upcoming week (August 23-27), Kasikorn Bank anticipates the Baht will move within a range of 33.00-33.50 Baht per US dollar. Key factors to monitor include the Fed's annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Thailand's July export figures, and the COVID situation. Important US economic data includes existing home sales, new home sales, durable goods orders, personal income/expenditure, and inflation measured by the PCE/Core PCE Price Index for July, as well as consumer confidence indices, Q2 2021 GDP (second estimate), and weekly jobless claims. Additionally, the market will also be watching the preliminary August PMI indices for the Eurozone, the UK, and the US.

Summary of Thai Stock Market Movements

  • The Thai stock market rose from the previous week, with the SET index closing at 1,553.18 points, up 1.63% from the prior week, while the average daily trading value was 80,548.25 million Baht, down 3.33% from the previous week. The mai index increased by 3.10%, closing at 503.46 points.
  • Despite ongoing pressures from the domestic COVID situation, Thai stocks managed to rise from the previous week, primarily driven by institutional investors' buying, especially in the banking sector, which benefited from the easing of restrictions allowing them to reopen in shopping malls, and the financial sector, which gained from interest rate hikes on car registration loans by some non-banks. However, Thai stocks experienced a brief pullback during the week after the Fed meeting minutes led the market to interpret a possible QE reduction within this year.

For the upcoming week (August 23-27), Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. expects the Thai stock index to have support levels at 1,535 and 1,525 points, while resistance levels are at 1,565 and 1,580 points, respectively. Key factors to monitor include the COVID situation both domestically and internationally, as well as domestic political issues, along with the Fed's annual meeting at Jackson Hole. Important US economic data includes the preliminary August PMI indices for manufacturing/services, new and existing home sales, durable goods orders, personal income/expenditure, the PCE/Core PCE Price Index for July, and Q2 2021 GDP. Other foreign factors include the preliminary August PMI indices for Japan and the Eurozone.


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