The Future of Thailand
Last night and up until the moment I am writing this article, it is the morning of October 17, 2020. I am sitting here “crying” over the “tragic” events happening in Thai politics. <\/h2>
In fact, I have cried like this at least once before, on October 14, 1973, during the “Great Upheaval.” That day, I was sitting on a bus heading home, and everyone on the bus was crying. I remember taking the little money I had and putting it into a donation box held by someone asking for contributions. That was 47 years ago when I was 20 years old, studying in my second year at university. At that time, the events were much more violent than they are now, with many deaths and injuries. After that incident, the country “changed” and became more democratic, but it was only for a short period. Since then, Thailand has been governed in a “wavering” manner up to today. However, on the social front, Thai people have continued to develop in line with global changes and the economic development of Thailand.
Economically, I must say we have done very well up to now. We are close to reaching a point where our income is high enough to be considered a wealthy country. Socially, Thai society has also made significant progress. We have ideas about rights and freedoms to do many things according to economic status. People believe that gender identity is a right for each individual to choose, and everyone accepts that religious beliefs are open. Even though we still have laws prohibiting certain activities, such as sex work, in practice, everyone knows it can be done, albeit with some added “costs.” In summary, in terms of economy and society, Thailand has developed quite consistently with the level of development of the country. However, in terms of politics, Thailand remains “backward.” In my opinion, this situation is not normal. From my observations, in countries or societies, development usually goes hand in hand. We can often see how far they have progressed just by visiting those countries.
Starting from roads and buildings, the cleanliness of places, the quality of services and hospitality, the food sold, and the quality of public services such as buses, taxis, and both above-ground and underground trains. On the social side, we look at how people think and view things, how much they respect the rights and opinions of others, and of course, the political system itself often indicates the “level” of development of a country. Currently, being a “democracy” often affects the level of corruption in the country, which is an important measure. For example, if a country is “developed,” it usually has to be a country that practices “true democracy.” There is no developed country that operates under a “dictatorship.” If a country has previously been a developing country and was once a dictatorship, like South Korea 30 years ago, it has now become a truly developed democracy.
The reason why the level of a country's development is related to a democratic governance system is likely multifaceted. However, one thing I believe is that when people become wealthier and have a better quality of life, what they want next is to have more “human dignity” and equality with others in all aspects. If society cannot provide that, they will demand and fight to achieve it. Therefore, when a certain point is reached where the majority of people have sufficient income, they will come out to demand and eventually “win.” This results in everyone in the country or society benefiting, meaning that even those with lower incomes will have equal rights and voices as everyone else. This is the essence of democracy, where no one has rights superior to others; everyone has one equal vote when deciding on various matters of society or the country.
My conclusion is that “the future of Thailand” depends on whether we can continue to develop into a developed country. One thing that must happen is that we need to be a country that practices true democracy. However, if we cannot continue to develop, the issues will be different. Regardless, I believe that with the current “level of democracy” still lower than the level of economic and social development, it is possible that Thai democracy will need to be “elevated.” With the influence of “new media,” this process of change is likely to accelerate significantly, as it seems to be happening soon.
Democracy arises alongside economic development, but conversely, I also think that economic development may improve or accelerate due to increased democracy. There are many reasons for this, but one important reason is that being a democracy helps to “unleash the potential of people” fully. People will feel motivated to work and create their own identities without being “suppressed” by unequal laws or society. Furthermore, the fact that most developed countries use this governance system means that using the same system will make it more welcomed in terms of trade and international relations.
There may be debates about why countries like China and possibly Vietnam, which use different governance systems, have grown rapidly. I argue that their rapid economic growth is due to other factors, especially the quality and strength of their workforce. In fact, if they were democracies, they might grow even faster. Regardless, I believe that eventually, as per capita income continues to rise until they become developed countries, China and Vietnam will also have to become democracies. No matter how strong the Communist Party is, it cannot control the country when the entire population does not want it.
My “crying” is not because I feel that the protesters are “defeated.” Politics is a long-term matter that takes time, and I have been through a lot of time. I know that politics is somewhat like war, with countless “battles” or “fields of combat.” Sometimes, a defeat in one battle may lead to an easier victory later. In politics, the real battlefield is in the minds or hearts of people. The true measure of political defeat or victory is to see “which side more people will shift to,” not a war that must destroy the enemy or capture more prisoners. However, I cried because of the media coverage that made us see everything happening, and it deeply affected me. I believe I am not the only one crying; even many conservative people of my generation cried when they saw students in school uniforms, who did not commit any violence, being treated without reason and mercy. I do not know how many more times I will have to cry before this battle ends.
The current political situation may become a “Country Risk” in terms of investment if it continues to escalate. Major foreign media outlets are reporting this as breaking news, sometimes even more than the “old media” in Thailand. News spreading worldwide will likely cause foreign investors to slow down or withdraw their investments in Thailand, which will impact both the stock market and bonds, as well as direct investments, leading to a decline in stock prices and worsening the economy, already affected by the COVID-19 crisis.
Personally, I have not done anything with my portfolio. I think stock prices have already dropped significantly, and “selling is not an option.” Above all, selling would mean holding cash that yields no returns and carries risks if something happens to the country. Cash may lose its value as it is just paper compared to stocks, which represent businesses and factories that are still essential to society. Additionally, deep down, I still have hope or a dream that we have reached our “worst” and that if we wait a little longer, things may improve. Above all, I see the energy and determination of the younger generation ready to lead Thai society to a better world, and I will wait to stand by their side. My duty is to live long enough to witness a progressive, equal, and fraternal society in Thailand.
