Weekly Economic Report as of September 9, 2022
The general inflation rate in August 2022 grew by 7.86% year-on-year The inflation rate in August 2022 increased by 7.86% (YoY), up 0.05% (MoM), indicating a slower growth rate and stabilizing at a low level. The Ministry of Commerce expects that inflation has already passed its peak in August 2022. The categories that saw significant growth include:
1) Fresh food items grew by 9.35%, particularly the prices of fresh vegetables due to heavy rainfall and flooding in agricultural areas, resulting in crop damage and reduced market supply. The price of chicken eggs increased in line with farm gate prices.
2) The electricity, fuel, water, and lighting category grew by 43.89% due to rising electricity and cooking gas prices, which remain higher than last year.
3) The vehicle and fuel category grew by 12.04% as fuel prices continued to rise compared to the previous year (though this was a slowdown from the previous month). Meanwhile, key items that saw price reductions included jasmine rice, sticky rice, and electrical appliances such as irons, air conditioners, and washing machines. The core inflation rate grew by 3.15%, and the average general inflation rate over the first eight months (January-August 2022) increased by 6.14% (AoA), while core inflation rose by 2.16% (AoA).

The construction materials price index in August 2022 grew by 5.2% compared to the same period last year The construction materials price index in August 2022 increased compared to the previous year due to rising costs driven by increasing energy prices and a depreciating Thai baht. Items that saw price increases compared to the same period last year included wood and wood products, cement, and concrete products, which grew by 8.2%, 7.8%, and 4.9%, respectively. In terms of the construction materials price index compared to the previous month, it decreased by 0.4%, particularly in the steel and steel products category, which fell by 2.4% due to challenges in China's real estate sector affecting global steel prices.

The Industrial Confidence Index (TISI) in August 2022 rose to 90.5 from 89.0 in the previous month The TISI in August 2022 increased for the third consecutive month across almost all components of the index, except for operational costs. This was supported by the manufacturing sector's continued growth in response to domestic demand, especially after the country reopened and tourism promotion measures through the "We Travel Together" project stimulated spending and consumption. However, the global economy is beginning to slow down, particularly in key trading partners like the United States and Europe, which are facing inflation issues. Additionally, high raw material prices, energy costs, and transportation fees remain significant negative factors affecting industrial operators' confidence. The index forecast for the next three months is at 99.5, also increasing for the third consecutive month due to the recovery of the tourism sector and domestic demand growth, along with government economic stimulus measures. However, the increase in minimum wage, rising electricity costs, and risks from a slowing global economy are factors that may impact confidence in the near future.

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