The Real Estate Information Center reports a summary of the supply and demand survey for residential projects currently for sale in the second half of 2021 in the Northeast region, including Nakhon Ratchasima, Khon Kaen, Udon Thani, Ubon Ratchathani, and Maha Sarakham provinces. The survey focused on projects with at least 6 unsold units. By the end of 2021, there were a total of 285 residential projects with 12,271 units available for sale, valued at 42.565 billion baht. This represents a decrease of 9.1% in the number of units compared to the same period in 2020 and a decrease of 10.5% in value. Only 867 new units were launched in the second half of the year, valued at 2.897 billion baht, resulting in a total of 10,439 unsold units in the Northeast, down 15.6% from the previous year, with a total unsold value of 36.095 billion baht, down 17.9% from the previous year.

In terms of sales activity, there were 1,832 new units sold in the second half of 2021, an increase of 61.4%, with a new sales value of 6.470 billion baht, up 80.5% compared to the same period last year. This led to a slight improvement in the overall absorption rate, which rose from 1.4% at the end of 2020 to 2.5% at the end of 2021.

Dr. Wichai Wiratthakhan, Inspector of the Government Housing Bank and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center stated that in the past two years under the COVID-19 pandemic, the investment in residential project development in the Northeast has changed significantly in terms of both demand and supply. As we entered the second half of 2021, the overall situation began to recover as developers reduced the introduction of new supply into the market, leading to an improvement in the absorption rate and a decrease in unsold projects.

The overall housing market situation in the Northeast for the second half of 2021 showed that out of the total 12,271 units available for sale, valued at 42.565 billion baht, there were 10,113 units of housing projects valued at 37.272 billion baht and 2,158 condominium units valued at 5.294 billion baht. Only 867 new units were launched in the second half of the year, valued at 2.897 billion baht, consisting of 794 housing units valued at 2.721 billion baht and 73 condominium units valued at 175 million baht.

For new sales in the second half of 2021, there were 1,832 units sold, an increase of 61.4%, with a new sales value of 6.470 billion baht, up 80.5% compared to the same period last year. In the housing project category, approximately 1,524 units were sold, an increase of 61.6%, with a value of 5.548 billion baht, up 72.6%, while 308 condominium units were sold, an increase of 60.4%, with a value of 923 million baht.

Khon Kaen province showed a positive trend, with the number of unsold housing units at 3,706 in 2021, a decrease of 6.7%, valued at 11.415 billion baht, down 7.7% compared to the same period last year. However, new housing units entering the market decreased to 295, down 28.2%, valued at 941 million baht, down 20.5%. The number of new sales was only 599 units, with a growth rate of 73.1%, and the new sales value increased by 78.4%, amounting to 1.911 billion baht. Due to the significant reduction in new products entering the market, the absorption rate rose to 2.7%. In Nakhon Ratchasima, the new sales rate for condominium projects increased by 138.1%, with unsold units decreasing by 30.2%. Although new projects launched decreased significantly, it was an increase from a low base, resulting in a clear improvement in the absorption rate from 1.3% in the second half of 2020 to 2.2% in the second half of 2021.

Outlook for the Northeast Housing Market

For the housing market outlook in 2022, the Real Estate Information Center predicts a period of recovery in both demand and supply. In terms of supply, it is expected that new projects will increase by 60.3%, from 2,450 units in 2021 to 3,928 units in 2022. Meanwhile, the number of unsold units is expected to increase by 22.6%, rising from 10,439 units in 2021 to 12,795 units in 2022, with a value increase of 20.5%, from 36.095 billion baht in 2021 to 43.505 billion baht. In terms of demand, it is anticipated that the overall number of new sales in the Northeast will increase by 5.9%, from 3,973 units in 2021 to 4,206 units in 2022, with sales value increasing by 4.8%, from 12.945 billion baht in 2021 to 13.560 billion baht in 2022, resulting in an overall absorption rate remaining stable at 2.4% in the second half of 2022.

However, Dr. Wichai Wiratthakhan added that in 2022, key provinces such as Nakhon Ratchasima and Khon Kaen should be closely monitored. Nakhon Ratchasima is expected to have 1,917 new units launched, an increase of 106.0%, valued at 5.627 billion baht, up 83.7%, with an expected 1,865 new sales units, an increase of 18.9%, valued at 6.061 billion baht, up 15.1%. The number of unsold units is expected to rise to 5,960, an increase of 22.4%, valued at 20.978 billion baht.

In Khon Kaen, the growth direction is mainly in the low-rise housing project category, with an expected 1,195 new units entering the market, an increase of 66.4%, valued at 3.153 billion baht, up 49.6%. The number of new sales is expected to be 1,151 units, a decrease of 0.3%, valued at 3.679 billion baht, an increase of 5.0%. Meanwhile, the number of unsold units is expected to be 3,274, an increase of 5.4%, valued at 10.693 billion baht, up 12.5%.

“The movements in the Northeast housing market still require caution regarding the introduction of new products into the market, as the absorption rates in all provinces remain stable. If more new products are introduced into the market, the number of unsold units will also increase. Overall, the market still favors low-priced housing,” Dr. Wichai Wiratthakhan concluded.