TTB Economic Analysis Center (ttb analytics) indicates that Thailand's economy in 2022 has the potential to grow by up to 4.4% based on an aggressive vaccination plan that allows for a quicker reopening to tourists, supported by continuous growth in exports. However, growth may only reach 2.8% if the vaccination rate is limited to 150,000 doses per day.

It is expected that vaccinating 300,000 people per day will cover 70% of the population, allowing the country to reopen in the first quarter of 2022.

            The third wave of COVID-19, which began in March, continues to see daily increases in infections, while Thailand has vaccinated 1.4 million people, accounting for 2% of the total population. This has led to a revision of the government's aggressive vaccination plan, aiming to quickly administer the first dose across all areas, targeting 70% coverage in each province, and increasing the vaccine procurement goal to 150 million doses by 2022, an increase of 50 million doses from the current amount. Additionally, the vaccination process will be made more flexible, accessible, and efficient, which is expected to reduce infection rates and facilitate a quicker reopening for tourism and services.

            According to TTB Economic Analysis Center, projections for infection rates based on the aggressive vaccination plan starting in June show that if 300,000 doses are administered daily, in line with the plan to procure 100 million doses by the end of 2021, the number of infections will gradually decrease starting in August, reaching 300 cases by December, with a total of 46.3 million people vaccinated, accounting for 70% of the population, leading to a potential reopening of the country in December. By the first quarter of 2022, vaccine distribution will cover nearly all eligible individuals.

            However, if vaccine distribution is lower due to various constraints, such as administering only 150,000 doses per day, the number of infections this year will continue to rise, delaying the reopening of the country and the acceptance of tourism until June 2022.

            Similarly, if vaccination can be accelerated to 500,000 doses per day, in line with the goal of increasing vaccine procurement to 150 million doses by 2022, the number of infections will decrease to a manageable level starting in November 2021, allowing for the acceptance of international tourists in the fourth quarter of 2021, as over 70% of the population will be vaccinated.

GDP for 2021 is expected to grow by 1.9%.

Accelerating vaccination and distribution to meet targets will positively impact the economy, allowing for recovery in the third quarter, with private consumption improving, supported by businesses reopening, which will benefit employment. The government will continue to implement relief measures and economic stimulus to support the still fragile economy.

            The export sector is also expected to recover in line with the improving global trade environment, with an estimated 8.1% growth in export value for 2021, driven by the recovery of trading partners, particularly in the U.S. and China.

            Private investment is expected to recover in line with the export sector and improved confidence. Although the economy is expected to improve in the second half of the year, the impact of COVID-19 in the first half will result in an overall growth of only 1.9% for 2021, down from the previous estimate (as of December 2020) of 2.41%.

 

“Vaccines” are the core of the country's recovery in 2022, pushing GDP growth to 4.4%.

            For 2022, under the condition of administering 300,000 doses per day, the country can fully reopen in the first quarter, with a cumulative vaccination rate of 77% of the total population, which will help the tourism sector recover more quickly. Additionally, the global economy is expected to continue growing, and rapid vaccine distribution in major economies will benefit key tourist markets for Thailand, such as Europe and China, with an estimated 10 million international tourists.

            Other economic engines will also regain importance, such as the export sector, which is expected to grow by 4.1% in 2022, supported by the recovery of foreign economies following vaccine rollouts and ongoing economic stimulus measures. Markets showing signs of recovery include the U.S., China, and the European Union.

            Private consumption is expected to continue expanding, in line with the return to normalcy for the public and the return of businesses to the labor market, along with improved agricultural incomes due to rising global agricultural prices.

            However, the economy in 2022 still faces risks from rising inflation due to increasing commodity prices, which will impact production costs and household purchasing power. Nevertheless, with stronger economic drivers across all components, Thailand's economy is expected to grow by 3.6%.

           But if vaccine distribution can be accelerated further, such as administering 500,000 doses per day, it will expedite the reopening of the country as early as November 2021, building confidence in managing the COVID-19 outbreak for the tourism market, resulting in an expected increase in international tourists to 13.8 million in 2022, further boosting economic growth to 4.4%.