REIC reports that the overall housing market in 2023 saw a decrease of 11.9% in new housing launches, with new sales down by 22.5%. Meanwhile, remaining unsold units increased by 13.7% compared to 2022, resulting in an absorption rate dropping to 2.7%. For 2024, REIC forecasts a 7.0% increase in new housing launches and a 24.6% increase in new sales, with remaining unsold units expected to rise by 10.6% compared to 2023.

The Real Estate Information Center (REIC) conducted a survey of housing projects for sale in Q4 2023, focusing on projects with at least six unsold units. The total supply of housing units offered for sale was 228,102 units, valued at 1,264,325 million baht, representing a 10.8% increase in units and a 21.5% increase in value. Among these, 31,363 new units were launched, valued at 240,006 million baht, marking a 13.0% increase in units and a 49.2% increase in value. However, new sales totaled 18,208 units, valued at 94,793 million baht, reflecting a 14.5% decrease in units and a 19.4% decrease in value. Consequently, the number of remaining unsold units reached 209,894, valued at 1,169,531 million baht, with units increasing by 13.7% and value by 26.7% compared to the same period last year.

Dr. Wichai Wiratthakhan, Inspector of the Government Housing Bank and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center, stated that the housing market in Q4 2023 showed a mismatch between supply and demand, with 31,363 new units entering the market (up 13.0%) while demand or new sales fell to 18,208 units (down 14.5%). This imbalance led to an increase in the proportion of remaining unsold units by 13.7%, the highest increase in four quarters, resulting in an average absorption rate of 2.7%.

Overall Supply of the Housing Market in Greater Bangkok

The survey found that in Q4 2023, a total of 31,363 new projects entered the market, valued at 240,006 million baht, with units increasing by 13.0% and value by 49.2%. Among these, 15,593 units were condominiums valued at 95,611 million baht (up 16.2% in units and 111.2% in value), while 15,770 units were single-family homes valued at 144,395 million baht (up 10.1% in units and 24.9% in value).

By type of new housing launched in Q4 2023, condominiums accounted for the highest percentage at 49.7% (15,593 units), followed by single-family homes at 22.1% (6,917 units), townhouses at 17.6% (5,510 units), and duplexes at 10.5% (3,306 units). The price range with the highest number of new launches was between 2.01 - 3.00 million baht, totaling 6,588 units, followed by the 3.01 - 5.00 million baht range with 6,056 units.

Top 5 Locations with the Highest Number of New Project Launches

1. Thonburi-Khlong San-Bangkok Noi-Bangkok Yai-Bang Phlat: 3,351 units, valued at 13,420 million baht.

2. Bang Yai-Bang Bua Thong-Bang Kruai-Sai Noi: 3,146 units, valued at 18,535 million baht.

3. Phasi Charoen-Bang Khae-Nonthaburi: 2,733 units, valued at 20,184 million baht.

4. Khlong Samwa-Min Buri-Ladkrabang: 2,499 units, valued at 10,607 million baht.

5. Bang Phli-Bang Bo-Bang Sao Thong: 2,407 units, valued at 13,061 million baht.

Top 5 Locations with the Highest Number of New Condominium Projects

1. Thonburi-Khlong San-Bangkok Noi-Bangkok Yai-Bang Phlat: 3,351 units, valued at 13,420 million baht.

2. Bang Sue-Dusit: 1,962 units, valued at 24,328 million baht.

3. Phasi Charoen-Bang Khae-Nonthaburi: 1,581 units, valued at 2,380 million baht.

4. Khlong Samwa-Min Buri-Ladkrabang: 1,283 units, valued at 2,899 million baht.

5. Huai Khwang-Jatujak-Dindaeng: 1,110 units, valued at 3,878 million baht.

Top 5 Locations with the Highest Number of New Single-Family Home Projects

1. Bang Yai-Bang Bua Thong-Bang Kruai-Sai Noi: 3,146 units, valued at 18,535 million baht.

2. Bang Phli-Bang Bo-Bang Sao Thong: 1,700 units, valued at 12,063 million baht.

3. Khlong Luang: 1,405 units, valued at 5,650 million baht.

4. Samut Prakan-Pak Phraek-Pak Samut Chedi: 1,335 units, valued at 5,477 million baht.

5. Khlong Samwa-Min Buri-Ladkrabang: 1,216 units, valued at 7,708 million baht.

Overall Demand in the Housing Market of Greater Bangkok

Demand trends in Q4 2023 showed a continuous decline in new sales for four consecutive quarters, with new sales of 18,208 units valued at 94,793 million baht, reflecting a 14.5% decrease. Among these, 11,228 units were from single-family home projects valued at 69,654 million baht, and 6,980 units were condominiums valued at 25,139 million baht. The decline in new sales was more pronounced in the condominium segment, which saw a decrease of 19.2%, while new sales in the single-family home segment decreased by 11.3%. Condominiums remained the highest proportion of new sales at 38.3% (6,980 units), followed by townhouses at 31.5% (5,734 units), single-family homes at 18.6% (3,392 units), duplexes at 10.8% (1,967 units), and commercial buildings at 0.7% (135 units). The highest price range for new sales was between 2.01 - 3.00 million baht, totaling 5,816 units, followed by the 3.01 - 5.00 million baht range with 4,288 units.

Top 5 Locations with the Highest Number of New Sales

1. Bang Phli-Bang Bo-Bang Sao Thong: 2,315 units, valued at 13,790 million baht.

2. Bang Yai-Bang Bua Thong-Bang Kruai-Sai Noi: 1,711 units, valued at 8,768 million baht.

3. Samut Prakan-Pak Phraek-Pak Samut Chedi: 1,613 units, valued at 6,221 million baht.

4. Khlong Luang: 1,333 units, valued at 4,294 million baht.

5. Lam Luk Ka-Thanyaburi: 1,280 units, valued at 4,488 million baht.

In addition to the locations with the most new project launches and new sales, there are areas that should be monitored closely due to high remaining unsold units. Out of the total 209,894 unsold units, 41,470 are completed, 73,571 are under construction, and 94,853 are not yet under construction. The total unsold units include 83,647 condominiums, 64,411 townhouses, 37,841 single-family homes, 22,098 duplexes, and 1,897 commercial buildings. The price range with the highest number of unsold units is between 2.01 - 3.00 million baht, totaling 63,582 units, followed by the 3.01 - 5.00 million baht range with 53,743 units and the 5.01 - 7.50 million baht range with 27,135 units.

Areas that require close monitoring include the top five locations with the highest number of unsold units:

1. Bang Yai-Bang Bua Thong-Bang Kruai-Sai Noi: 20,271 units, valued at 103,335 million baht.

2. Lam Luk Ka-Thanyaburi: 18,303 units, valued at 85,304 million baht.

3. Bang Phli-Bang Bo-Bang Sao Thong: 16,762 units, valued at 93,270 million baht.

4. Khlong Luang: 16,558 units, valued at 61,418 million baht.

5. Samut Prakan-Pak Phraek-Pak Samut Chedi: 13,807 units, valued at 45,221 million baht.

For the overall year of 2023, REIC's survey found that a total of 96,278 new housing units entered the market, a decrease of 11.9%. This includes 48,923 single-family home projects and 47,355 condominium projects. The total number of new sales was 73,703 units, reflecting a decrease of 22.5%, with 43,229 single-family home units and 30,474 condominium units sold. The total remaining unsold units reached 209,894, an increase of 13.7%, comprising 126,247 single-family homes and 83,647 condominiums. The absorption rate dropped from 3.8% in 2022 to 2.7% in 2023.

REIC predicts that if economic factors meet their targets, 2024 could see a recovery closer to the situation in 2022, which was the best year following the COVID-19 pandemic. For 2024, it is expected that a total of 103,019 new housing units will enter the market, an increase of 7.0%, with a total value of 651,377 million baht, including 50,882 single-family homes valued at 425,415 million baht and 52,137 condominiums valued at 225,965 million baht. It is also anticipated that 91,869 new housing units will be sold, an increase of 24.6%, with a total value of 486,084 million baht, comprising 52,647 single-family homes valued at 333,868 million baht and 39,222 condominiums valued at 152,216 million baht. However, the lower sales of condominiums compared to new launches may lead to an increase in the overall number of remaining unsold housing units to 232,216, valued at 1,296,376 million baht, up 10.6% compared to 2023, consisting of 135,654 single-family homes valued at 866,755 million baht and 96,562 condominiums valued at 429,621 million baht. The absorption rate is expected to decrease to 2.4% due to increased supply, particularly in the condominium segment, which may see a more significant reduction in sales compared to single-family homes.

Dr. Wichai summarized the outlook for 2024, stating that the housing market in Greater Bangkok is expected to show slight improvement, but it still faces several risk factors, including (1) the potential slowdown of the Thai economy due to the global economic downturn, (2) the cancellation of LTV relaxation measures, and (3) rising living costs and high household debt ratios exceeding 90% of GDP. These factors significantly impact the ability to purchase housing and secure loans, making it more challenging to access credit as financial institutions tighten their lending criteria. This could affect the transfer of ownership. However, if measures are implemented to enhance housing affordability and stimulate the economy effectively, there is a chance for the market to improve beyond current forecasts.