The Real Estate Information Center of the Government Housing Bank (REIC) reports on the housing market situation in the northern provinces during the second half of 2023, covering five provinces: Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Phitsanulok, Nakhon Sawan, and Lamphun. It was found that the number of units available for sale in the second half of 2023 decreased by 0.2% from the first half but increased by 1.9% compared to the same period in 2022. This is attributed to a 66.3% increase in new project launches. In summary, 3,096 new housing units entered the market in 2023, valued at 12.287 billion baht, with new sales decreasing by 31.9%, and remaining unsold units increased by 3.6% to 15,441 units. The forecast for 2024 indicates a positive trend, with new sales expected to rise by 27.5%, and absorption rates slightly increasing to 1.8%.

Dr. Vichai Wiratthakhan, Inspector of the Government Housing Bank and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center revealed that a survey of housing projects in the five northern provinces during the second half of 2023 found that the supply available for sale was approximately 16,954 units, a decrease of 0.2% from the first half of 2023, but with a total value of 68.44 billion baht, an increase of 1.0%. This includes 1,795 condominium units, up 26.3%, valued at 5.289 billion baht, an increase of 25.3%, and 15,159 housing development units, down 2.6%, valued at 63.151 billion baht, an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the same period in 2022, the number of available housing units increased by 1.9%, with a value increase of 3.1%.

Overall Supply from the survey indicates that in the second half of 2023, 1,442 new projects entered the market, an increase of 66.3%, valued at 5.907 billion baht, an increase of 42.4% compared to the same period in 2022. This includes 505 condominium projects, up 631.9%, valued at 1.420 billion baht, an increase of 1,135.8%, and 937 housing development projects, up 17.4%, valued at 4.487 billion baht, an increase of 11.3%.

In the second half of 2023, out of a total of 16,954 housing units offered for sale, valued at 68.44 billion baht, there were 1,795 condominium units valued at 5.289 billion baht and 15,159 housing development units valued at 63.151 billion baht. The number of condominium projects entering the market increased by 5.6%, while housing development projects increased by 1.5% compared to the same period in 2022. The details show that 1,442 new units were launched, an increase of 66.3%, with a value of 5.907 billion baht, an increase of 42.4% compared to the same period in 2022, including 505 condominium units, up 631.9%, valued at 1.420 billion baht, an increase of 1,135.8%, and 937 housing development units, up 17.4%, valued at 4.487 billion baht, an increase of 11.3%.

Overall Demand indicates that new sales decreased, with only 1,513 new housing units sold in the second half, down 13.0% compared to the same period last year. Condominium sales were 252 units, down 22.2%, valued at 710 million baht, down 14.6%, while housing development sales were 1,261 units, down 10.9%, valued at 4.938 billion baht, down 9.1%. Overall, there was a decrease in new sales across all housing types, with only twin houses seeing an increase of 16.1% compared to the same period in 2022.

However, upon closer examination, it was found that 58.6% of new sales were single-family homes in the price range of 3.01-5.00 million baht, with 339 units sold, and in the price range of 2.01-3.00 million baht, with 306 units sold.

The changes in demand and supply during the second half of 2023 resulted in a backlog of 15,441 unsold units, an increase of 3.6%, valued at 62.793 billion baht, an increase of 4.5%. This includes an increase in condominium units, which saw 1,543 units, up 22.4%, valued at 4.580 billion baht, an increase of 15.4%, and 13,898 housing development units, up 2.7%, valued at 58.213 billion baht, an increase of 3.7%.

“From the remaining units categorized by construction type, there are 4,877 completed housing units left for sale, accounting for 31.6% of the total remaining units. Among these, 1,543 condominium units are either under construction or completed and still available, representing 10% of the total remaining units. The housing development projects have 4,040 completed units left for sale and 2,497 units under construction, which is a noteworthy figure.”

Overall, the northern region has potential locations, with five areas that need monitoring:

The five locations with the highest sales in the second half are:

1. San Sai: 175 units, valued at 573.6 million baht

2. Downtown Chiang Rai: 131 units, valued at 488.4 million baht

3. Mae Jo: 130 units, valued at 349.4 million baht

4. Payap University area: 117 units, valued at 565.6 million baht

5. Saraphi: 115 units, valued at 399.4 million baht

The five locations with the highest remaining units are:

1. Downtown Chiang Rai: 1,468 units, valued at 6.418 billion baht

2. San Sai: 1,339 units, valued at 4.434 billion baht

3. Bo Sang-Doi Saket: 1,279 units, valued at 6.136 billion baht

4. Payap University area: 1,209 units, valued at 5.810 billion baht

5. Airport-Mae Fah Luang University: 1,169 units, valued at 4.167 billion baht

From the overall survey of the housing market in Northern Thailand for 2023, there were 3,096 new housing units launched, valued at 12.287 billion baht, consisting of 2,591 housing development units valued at 10.867 billion baht and 505 condominium units valued at 1.420 billion baht, which was the only project launched in Chiang Mai. Overall, new housing units decreased by 23.3%.

Meanwhile, new sales totaled 3,220 units, valued at 12.470 billion baht, with 2,808 housing development units valued at 11.328 billion baht and 412 condominium units valued at 1.142 billion baht. Overall, new sales decreased by 31.9%, with the absorption rate also declining from 2.4% in 2022 to 1.6% in 2023, and there are 15,441 unsold units valued at 62.793 billion baht, with the number of units increasing by 3.6% compared to 2022, consisting of 13,898 housing development units valued at 58.213 billion baht and 1,543 condominium units valued at 4.580 billion baht.

It is anticipated that in 2024, approximately 3,142 new housing units will enter the market, valued at 12.487 billion baht, consisting of 2,629 housing development units valued at 11.047 billion baht and 512 condominium units valued at 1.440 billion baht. Overall, the number of new units is expected to increase by 1.5%, with new sales projected to reach 4,105 units, valued at 17.323 billion baht, including 3,034 housing development units valued at 14.360 billion baht and 1,071 condominium units valued at 2.963 billion baht. Overall, new sales may increase by 27.5%, with the absorption rate slightly rising to 1.8%, particularly for condominium projects, which are expected to increase from 1.9% in 2023 to 4.3% in 2024, while the absorption rate for horizontal projects or housing developments remains stable at 1.5%.

Housing Market in Chiang Mai: The overall summary shows a total of 10,540 units, an increase of 4.5%, valued at 45.366 billion baht, an increase of 8.1%. This includes 8,843 housing development units, an increase of 3.3%, valued at 40.210 billion baht, an increase of 7.4%, and 1,697 condominium units, an increase of 11.8%, valued at 5.156 billion baht, an increase of 13.9%. There were 1,137 new units launched, valued at 4.809 billion baht, consisting of 632 housing development units, an increase of 136.7%, valued at 3.389 billion baht, an increase of 181.2%, and 505 condominium units, an increase of 631.9%, valued at 1.420 billion baht, an increase of 1,135.8%.

New housing sales in the second half totaled 949 units, down 12.4%, valued at 3.736 billion baht, down 6.9%. This includes 698 housing development units, down 10.3%, valued at 3.027 billion baht, down 5.8%, and 251 condominium units, down 17.7%, valued at 708 million baht, down 11.5%. The total remaining housing units amounted to 9,591, an increase of 6.6%, valued at 41.631 billion baht, an increase of 9.7%, consisting of 8,145 housing development units, an increase of 4.6%, valued at 37.183 billion baht, an increase of 8.6%, and 1,446 condominium units, an increase of 19.2%, valued at 4.448 billion baht, an increase of 19.3% compared to the same period in 2022.

However, field observations indicate that in Chiang Mai, there is competition primarily in reducing prices for housing development projects, with the best-selling projects being modern-designed single-family homes that offer good after-sales service and are priced between 3.01 and 5.00 million baht. In contrast, condominium projects tend to use promotional strategies that focus on offering extras rather than price reductions, with the best-selling projects mostly falling within the price range of 2.01 to 3.00 million baht. When categorized by room type, one-bedroom units with shared living space are the most popular, priced between 2.01 and 3.00 million baht.

It is estimated that in the future, new housing development projects in Chiang Mai will spread along the connecting ring roads between the outer districts, such as Mae Rim, San Sai, Doi Saket, San Kamphaeng, Saraphi, and Hang Dong, located about 10-15 kilometers from the city center of Chiang Mai, while there is a trend for more condominium projects to be launched in the inner city area.

Housing Market in Chiang Rai: The overall summary shows a total of 3,045 housing units offered for sale, an increase of 11.1%, valued at 12.090 billion baht, an increase of 8.7%. This includes 3,039 housing development units, an increase of 11.2%, valued at 12.020 billion baht, an increase of 8.7%, and only 6 condominium units valued at 10 million baht. There were only 114 new units launched, valued at 405 million baht, all of which were housing development projects. New sales totaled 222 units, an increase of 200%, valued at 799 million baht, an increase of 141.5%, resulting in a total of 2,823 unsold housing units, an increase of 5.9%, valued at 11.230 billion baht, an increase of 4.6%, consisting of 2,817 housing development units, an increase of 5.9%, valued at 11.220 billion baht, an increase of 4.6%, and only 6 condominium units valued at 9 million baht.

It is noteworthy that the areas with potential and continued interest are in the city of Chiang Rai, particularly for housing development projects priced between 3.01 and 5.00 million baht, while condominium projects are priced between 1.51 and 2.00 million baht, all using price reduction strategies to encourage purchasing decisions.

Housing Market in Phitsanulok: The overall summary shows a total of 2,368 housing units offered for sale, a decrease of 7.9%, valued at 7.834 billion baht, a decrease of 7.1%. This includes 2,276 housing development units, a decrease of 6.5%, valued at 7.710 billion baht, a decrease of 6.4%, and 92 condominium units, a decrease of 33.3%, valued at 123 million baht, a decrease of 37.5%. In the second half of the year, only 127 new units were launched, valued at 522 million baht, all of which were housing development projects, with new sales totaling 177 units, a decrease of 25.6%, valued at 591 million baht, including 176 housing development units, a decrease of 21.4%, valued at 589 million baht, and only 1 condominium unit. This resulted in a total of 2,191 unsold housing units, a decrease of 6.1%, valued at 7.243 billion baht, consisting of 2,100 housing development units, a decrease of 5.0%, valued at 7.121 billion baht, and 91 condominium units, a decrease of 26.6%, valued at 122 million baht. The best-selling housing development projects are primarily in the price range of 2.01 to 5.00 million baht, accounting for 85.8% of total sales.