Following the easing of lockdown, businesses and shops have begun to reopen, allowing various sectors of the economy to start moving again and generating income for general businesses.

        According to an analysis by the Economic Intelligence Center (EIC), some economic activities have begun to show slow signs of recovery after the lockdown was relaxed. Data from Google's COVID-19 Community Mobility Report indicates an increase in outdoor mobility, while information from ThaiChana.com and TripAdvisor.com shows that businesses, including shops and hotels, have started reopening and many companies, especially those related to consumer services, have begun announcing job openings again, as reported by JobsDB.com.

Google's Community Mobility Reports indicate increased outdoor mobility after the lockdown was eased.


        Google has released data on travel to various locations from people in several countries, including Thailand, showing that outdoor mobility significantly decreased during the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak, coinciding with strict lockdown measures. For instance, travel to transit stations dropped by nearly -70%, and visits to retail and recreation areas, such as shopping malls, decreased by over -50% around early April compared to travel volumes at the beginning of the year.

        However, after the number of infections began to decline and lockdown measures were eased, outdoor mobility to various locations started to recover from its lowest point. Nevertheless, data from mid-May indicates that overall travel activities remain low compared to early-year figures, with only visits to grocery and pharmacy locations returning to pre-lockdown levels, while outdoor mobility to other locations still decreased by an average of -22.8% to -39.5%.

 


Data from ThaiChana.com and TripAdvisor.com reflects the gradual resumption of services by many businesses.

        EIC collected data on registered businesses through an Application Program Interface (API) connection with ThaiChana.com in Bangkok and 12 other major economic provinces, finding that the total number of registered businesses in these areas reached 70,425 on May 27, up from 40,537 on May 20, indicating an increase in service availability. Notably, EIC observed that the number of shops in shopping malls was relatively high shortly after the lockdown was eased, with 26,450 shops registered on May 20, accounting for 65.2% of the total registrations in the area, reflecting the readiness of shopping malls to reopen. However, other types of shops have also gradually resumed operations, with a significantly higher rate of increase in the following week, more than doubling, while shopping mall stores increased by 31.0% during the same period, likely due to businesses learning to adapt to the new normal.

Similarly, data on online room bookings from TripAdvisor.com that had previously dropped by as much as -52.1% compared to the beginning of the lockdown has started to show an increase, with the negative change reduced to -27.1% as of May 28, indicating a return of hotel operations, particularly among 3-star and budget hostels, while 4 and 5-star hotels remain at low levels, possibly due to their reliance on international customers who still face travel restrictions.

 

Data from JobsDB.com shows a recovery in job openings in the tourism and consumer retail sectors that are starting to resume operations.

        EIC conducted web scraping of data from JobsDB.com over the past two months and found that in the most recent week of data (May 21-27), the total number of job postings increased by 11.0% compared to the week before the first phase of lockdown was eased (April 26 - May 2), with increases across various business sectors, particularly in tourism and consumer retail, such as clothing and retail, which saw higher growth rates than other sectors, aligning with the resumption of these businesses after being restricted by lockdown measures. However, the average number of job postings currently remains -25.4% lower than levels at the start of the lockdown (March 21-27).


        Although there are signs of recovery following the easing of lockdown, most economic activities are still at low levels compared to before. EIC anticipates that it will take a long time to return to previous levels, while remaining vigilant against a potential second wave of outbreaks. Activities such as outdoor mobility, services from shops and hotels, and online job postings remain significantly lower than pre-crisis levels, even though there has been some recovery recently. Furthermore, the nature of activities moving forward is likely to differ from before, such as an increase in remote work, restrictions on customer service in retail, restaurants, and hotels, and challenges consumers face due to reduced purchasing power and low consumer confidence, along with difficulties in reopening to international tourists. For these reasons, EIC believes that many economic activities, especially those reliant on international tourists, will take a long time to fully recover.

Another crucial factor to consider is the vigilance against a second wave of COVID-19 outbreaks, which, if it occurs, could lead to a return of lockdown measures, further crippling an already fragile economy.

 

Source: Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)