The Real Estate Information Center of the Government Housing Bank has released a survey on the overall housing market in Northern Thailand, including Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Phitsanulok, Tak, and Nakhon Sawan, focusing on projects with at least six units available for sale. The survey indicates that by the end of 2021, the market began to show positive adjustments, with supply levels aligning more appropriately with the ongoing sluggish demand from 2020. The number of new units available for sale was 1,978, a decrease of 10.0%, valued at 7,439 million baht, down 4.6%. In terms of demand, the number of new units sold increased, with 2,755 units sold, up 33.0%, valued at 10,232 million baht, an increase of 42.0%. Meanwhile, the total number of unsold housing units was 15,243, down 7.6%, with a total value of 56,995 million baht, down 6.4%.

Dr. Vichai Wiratthakhan, Inspector of the Government Housing Bank and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center (REIC), stated that data collected on investment movements in residential project development in Northern Thailand during the second half of 2021 shows that the Chiang Mai market is improving. This is evident from the increasing proportion of new project launches. Sales have also shown improvement since the first half of 2021 and continued to rise in the latter half. However, caution is still advised for investments in the condominium market in Northern Thailand, while the landed property market remains strong, particularly in Phitsanulok.

The survey found that in the second half of 2021, there were not many new housing projects entering the Northern market, with only 1,978 units, a decrease of 10.0%, valued at 7,439 million baht, down 4.6% compared to the same period last year. This resulted in a total housing supply in Northern Thailand of 17,998 units, down 3.1%, with a total value of 67,227 million baht, down 1.3%.

When examining the details of the growth rate of new units available for sale, Chiang Rai saw the largest decrease at 78.9%, reflecting a decline in the development of all housing projects. Chiang Mai followed with a decrease of 29.1%, with a 33.5% drop in housing projects, while condominiums increased by 12.8%. Tak experienced a slowdown in new project launches for both housing and condominiums. In contrast, Phitsanulok saw a significant increase of 263.9% in new launches, primarily in housing projects compared to the same period last year.

Outlook for the Northern Housing Market in 2022

For the outlook of the Northern housing market, the Real Estate Information Center estimates that approximately 4,792 new housing units will enter the market in 2022, with a total value of around 14,490 million baht. This represents a 68.3% increase in units and a 46.4% increase in value compared to 2021, comprising approximately 3,849 housing projects valued at around 11,761 million baht and about 943 condominium projects valued at approximately 2,729 million baht.

Regarding new sales, the center predicts that in 2022, there will be approximately 5,183 new units sold, valued at around 17,037 million baht, representing a 9.9% increase in units and a 1.7% decrease in value. This includes approximately 3,823 housing projects valued at around 13,235 million baht and about 1,360 condominium projects valued at approximately 3,802 million baht.

As for unsold units, it is estimated that in 2022, the Northern housing market will have approximately 14,610 unsold units, valued at around 51,343 million baht, with a 4.2% decrease in units and a 9.9% decrease in value. This includes approximately 11,895 housing projects valued at around 43,969 million baht and about 2,716 condominium projects valued at approximately 7,375 million baht. The majority of unsold units will still be in Chiang Mai, followed by Phitsanulok and Chiang Rai, while Nakhon Sawan and Tak have relatively few. The significant reduction in unsold units is seen as a positive sign, indicating a move towards recovery.