In the past, Thailand primarily developed its internal combustion engine (ICE) automotive industry. However, disruptive technologies such as electric vehicles, along with government support facilitating the transition to these technologies, have led automakers to increasingly develop battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs & PHEVs) in Thailand. In the long term, this is expected to significantly impact the production of gasoline vehicles and related components in the country.

Currently, sales of BEVs and HEVs & PHEVs are rapidly increasing. By 2024, the Kasikorn Research Center predicts that their market share in the overall automotive market will rise to 15% and 16%, respectively. When considering only passenger vehicles, the market share is expected to be even higher, reaching 28% and 31%, respectively. Although there are challenges regarding technology and costs for pickup trucks, clear advancements are anticipated starting this year. Looking at Thailand's main export markets, many markets are also importing BEVs and HEVs & PHEVs at higher proportions, exceeding the global average of 15% of total vehicle imports. This presents an opportunity for Thailand to increase production of BEVs and HEVs & PHEVs for export to these markets, beginning with passenger cars domestically and progressing to pickups in the future, leveraging its existing strength as a global pickup production base.

In the long run, BEVs are expected to grow significantly, likely leading to a contraction in the production of gasoline vehicles, including HEVs & PHEVs. By 2030, it is anticipated that their market share may drop to 72%, down from an expected 96% in 2024. This will also affect the value of components specifically used for gasoline vehicles, which is projected to decline at an average rate of 1.7% per year, from 287.7 billion baht in 2024 to 252.06 billion baht in 2030.

Read the full analysis at https://www.kasikornresearch.com/th/analysis/k-social-media/Pages/Bev-CIS3448-FB-12-01-2024.aspx